1.
The Making of ‘The West’
In order to understand why ‘The West’ is broken, we first
need to understand what we actually mean by ‘The West’ when we capitalise it between
inverted commas in this way. For the one thing it is not, of course, is a
geographical location. Nor is this simply because, in common parlance, both ‘east’
and ‘west’ are primarily used to indicate relative rather than absolute position,
such that, were I to travel ten miles to the east of my current location, for instance,
a point five miles to the east of where I am now would become a point five
miles to the west of where I would then be. That is to say that ‘east’ and ‘west’
are primarily expressions of one’s own position or point of view. What’s more,
this applies as much to one’s cultural perspective as it does to one’s geographical
location. For while ‘The West’, as we commonly understand it, may now extend
far beyond the borders of the continent which gave it birth, most Westerners
still see themselves as culturally European and therefore define themselves in
contradistinction to cultures they regard as foreign, most notably the cultures
of Asia, which we commonly refer to as ‘The East’.
This European cultural identity, however, is not drawn from all
of Europe. This is because ‘The West’ also has an ideological dimension, which
is rooted firmly in the reformation. This is most clearly illustrated by the
fact that, while North America, which was initially settled by immigrants from protestant
Britain, Germany and Scandinavia, is definitely part of ‘The West’, the
Catholic countries of Central and South America are not.
This is because the Roman Catholic Church has always been a fundamentally
authoritarian institution, having been intentionally created that way by the
very manner in which it was brought into being, which, as I have explained
elsewhere, happened on Christmas day in the year 800, when Pope Leo III crowned
Charlemagne as the first Holy Roman Emperor in what was essentially an act of
mutual recognition. I say this because while, in crowning Charlemagne Holy
Roman Emperor, Leo recognised Charlemagne as the legitimate heir to the Roman
Emperors of the past, in allowing himself to be crowned by Leo, Charlemagne
recognised Leo’s authority as head of the Church to so crown him, with the
result that the Holy Roman Empire, the Roman Catholic Church and the Papacy, itself,
were all effectively created by this single act.
Of course, it will be objected that Popes existed long before
Leo III crowned Charlemagne Holy Roman Emperor, each one being the heir to St.
Peter. This widespread misconception, however, is the result of a deliberate rewriting
of history by the Roman Catholic Church in order to legitimise the role and
status of the Papacy. I say this because prior to Charlemagne’s recognition of
Leo’s as head of the Church, there had been no overall leadership or hierarchical
structure within the Church as a whole. Each diocese was essentially
independent, its bishop chosen entirely by its congregation. This meant that no
bishop had any more institutional authority over the wider Church than any
other and that those who rose to eminence did so purely on the basis of their
erudition, depth of theological understanding or holiness.
In the 4th century, for instance, the bishop who
was accorded the greatest authority in the wider Church was Athanasius,
Archbishop of Alexandria, who not only wrote an open letter to the Church each
Easter, which was copied and distributed to every diocese in Europe, the Middle
East and North Africa, but who used one such letter to nominate the books that
were to be included in the New Testament. In the 5th century, this position
of primacy then fell to Augustine, Bishop of Hippo, who not only hosted the synod
which finally ratified Athanasius’ selection of the New Testament texts but was
regarded as the greatest theologian of his generation, writing several books of
his own, including ‘The City of God’, ‘On Christian Doctrine’, and ‘Confessions’,
all of which are still read today. To suppose that either of these giants of
the early Church was in any sense subordinate to contemporaries who just
happened to be Bishops of Rome but
made no impression on the Church beyond their own diocese is therefore simply
absurd.
Yes, after the fall of the western Roman Empire, during what
are now called the Dark Ages, when bubonic plague wiped out most of the
population of Europe, it is true that the Bishops of Roman did take on more
secular power and were rewarded by their congregations with the affectionate
title of ‘Il Papa’. In a city whose population had fallen from over a million
to just 10,000, however, this was largely due to the lack of anyone else with
sufficient authority to fulfil this role and was entirely confined to Rome,
itself, and the surrounding region, both northern and southern Italy having been
conquered by a coalition of the Lombards and other northern tribes and reverted
to paganism. In fact, Rome was almost completely isolated from the rest of the
Christian world during most of the 7th and 8th centuries,
making it quite impossible for any Bishop of Rome to have exercised authority
over the wider Church even if that authority had existed. It was only when the
Lombards were defeated by Charlemagne’s father, Pepin the Short, in fact, that
Rome was finally reunited with the rest of Christendom and it was only when
Charlemagne and Leo hatched their master plan for world domination that any
Bishop of Rome assumed the role of Christianity’s supreme pontiff.
There were, however, two major flaws in this plan. The first
was that, initially, Leo was in no position to assert authority over the wider
Church on his own. In fact, he needed Charlemagne to more or less do it for
him. Because Charlemagne needed Leo to be recognised as head of the Church in
order to legitimise his own position as Holy Roman Emperor, he was, of course,
happy to do this, at least within his own domains. The problem was that, while
his domains were extensive, covering all of France, most of Germany and parts
of both Spain and Italy, they didn’t extend to all of Christendom. In
particular, they didn’t extend to ‘The East’, where there was already a long
established Roman Emperor based in Constantinople. What’s more, this emperor
could trace his lineage back to the Emperor Constantine and didn’t therefore need
a bishop to give him legitimacy. More to the point, he certainly didn’t want
his own bishops being made answerable to a Bishop of Rome who was nothing more
than the puppet of a rival Emperor.
From the very moment the Roman Catholic Church and the Holy
Roman Empire were simultaneously brought into being by Charlemagne and Leo’s
act of mutual recognition, therefore, a rift between the Western and Eastern Churches
was more or less inevitable. It didn’t happen immediately, of course, not least
because it took some time for Leo and his successors to develop the Papacy into
a fully functioning organisation with both the ability and confidence to assert
its authority without the support of the Holy Roman Empire. Once it reached
that point, however, there was only ever going to be one outcome.
This point of inevitable sundering was finally reached in
1054, when, in an attempt to exercise the authority over the eastern Church the
Papacy had always pretended it had, Pope Leo IX sent a papal nuncio to Constantinople
ostensibly to resolve two matters of doctrine which the Roman Catholic Church
had introduced but to which the eastern bishops strongly objected. These
concerned the nature of purgatory, which the eastern bishops regarded as far
too punitive, and the canonisation of saints, which the Pope claimed to be his
sole prerogative. While this made it seem as if the dispute was purely theological,
however, in reality, the demand that the eastern bishops accept doctrines imposed
on them by the Church of Rome without them even being consulted was actually nothing
less than a demand that they recognise the Pope as the head of a universal Christian
Church and submit to his authority. With the support of their Emperor, however,
this was something they quite predictably declined to do, initiating what
became known as the Great Schism between the Roman Catholic Church and the
Eastern Orthodox Church which was to have enormous consequences for Europe
throughout the centuries that followed, the most significant of which was the
failure of the Christian world to come together to defend Europe against Islamic
encroachment, leading to the fall of Constantinople in 1453 and the subsequent Muslim
invasion of the Balkans, creating fault lines in Europe which are still a
source of friction and conflict today.
If the first major flaw in Charlemagne and Leo’s plan led to
the Great Schism, the second major flaw had even more significant consequences
and arose from the fact that it didn’t just take time for successive Popes to
develop the Papacy into a fully functioning operation, it also took a great
deal of money. A body of senior clerics had to be developed to help shape
policy and doctrine, a secretariat had to be employed to copy documents and have them distributed
to every diocese in Europe, courts had to be established to resolve disputes,
hear appeals and punish offenders, and a cadre of ambassadors or papal nuncios
had to be recruited, not just to keep subordinate bishops in line, but to
represent the Church’s interests throughout Europe’s royal courts. It was a bit
like setting up and running a multinational corporation, the costs of which
continually expanded as the influence and ambition of the Church grew.
Not, of course, that Leo could have realistically foreseen this
as a problem when he first embarked upon this course, not least because the
Emperor Constantine had left the Lateran Palace to the Roman diocese in his
will, which meant that, initially, the Papacy had ample accommodation and
office space. What’s more, most of its daily running costs could be met by
donations from wealthy parishioners and by rents and taxes levied on the Papal
States, which had been gifted to the Church by Charlemagne for this purpose. As
the Church continued to grow, however, the unwelcome truth would have gradually
crept up on whoever ran the Papal Treasury that these revenues were largely fixed
and did not, as a consequence, grow in line with costs. What it needed,
therefore, was not just other forms of income, but other forms of income that
were based, not on side-lines such as rents on properties, but on its core
activities, the most central of which, of course, was spreading the gospel and guiding
people towards salvation.
The good news was that the foundations for monetising this
service, if one may call it that, had already been laid. As early as the middle
of the 3rd century, for instance, theologians such as Basil of
Caesarea had begun encouraging priests to hear their parishioners’ confessions
and grant absolution on the fulfilment of a suitable penance: a practice which
was commended partly on the basis that it kept parishioners forever conscious
of their sinfulness, but also because it gave priests the power to bestow that
which had once been the sole preserve of Christ himself: forgiveness.
This power was then further enhanced when it began to be realised
that absolution was most vital at or around the time of death, to which the
Church consequently responded by developing the dual procedures of the Viaticum
and Extreme Unction, jointly known as the Last Rites, which enabled the dying
to meet their maker with their sins expunged, thereby ensuring that they would
be allowed to enter heaven. The problem was, of course, that demanding money
from a dying man or his family before a priest agreed to administer the Last
Rites was not likely to go down well with most Christians and could not, in
itself, therefore, solve the Church’s financial problems. A possible solution,
however, became fairly obvious once people started to think about what actually
happened to those of the faithful who were unfortunate enough to die without
being given the Last Rites and whose sins therefore remained unexpunged: a
question which had already been fairly persuasively answered by Augustine in his
book ‘The City of God’, in which he suggested that heaven might have a kind of
antechamber in which the unexpiated sins of those who had died unabsolved might
be purged in some other way: specifically through fire.
Importantly, Augustine’s answer to what he saw as a purely
theological question was not entirely original to himself: it had actually been
discussed for at least three centuries before he took it up. His reputation,
however, not only ensured that, when it was put forward again, sometime during
the 10th century, not only was it not rejected out of hand as being too
dreadful to contemplate but that someone in the Lateran Palace would recognise
it as the perfect solution to all the Church’s financial difficulties. As, indeed, turned out to be the
case. For as soon as the existence of purgatory was officially adopted as
Church doctrine, people were so terrified of dying in a state of sin that they
were not only prepared to confess to every possible sin they may have committed
– so as to not
leave any out – but
were willing to make cash payments to the Church in expurgation instead of
undergoing one of the more traditional forms of penance.
That we are unable to say when, exactly, this occurred is,
of course, slightly unsatisfactory, not least because it has led to a great
deal of confusion on the subject. In researching this essay, for instance, I
came across one article which suggested that it was still under discussion by
the Church as late as the 12th century. We know that this cannot be
correct, however, because we know that the punitive nature of purgatory was one
of the reasons for the Great Schism in 1054. Not only must the doctrine have
been introduced before then, therefore, but there is every reason to suspect
that its introduction must also have occurred before 31st January
993, when Pope John XV canonised the first saint, a Prince-Bishop of the Holy
Roman Empire called Ulrich of Augsburg.
Again, it will be objected that there were saints before
993, going all the way back to the apostles, in fact. While these saints may
have lived before 993, however, they weren’t canonised until after 993. For
unlike beatification, which generally happened spontaneously by popular acclaim
within the local diocese of the person being beatified, formal canonisation,
which was created specifically to allow saints to bypass purgatory and go
straight to heaven, only became necessary once the Church’s doctrine on
purgatory had, itself, been adopted, which we can therefore assume must have
happened sometime before 993. Indeed, it was for this reason that the two
issues of purgatory and canonisation were raised together by the eastern
bishops in 1054. For if they were ever going to accept the Church’s doctrine on
purgatory, they certainly didn’t want the Bishop of Rome to be the only person
on earth with the power to circumvent it, almost certainly wanting their own churches
to have some say in the matter.
If we do not know when, exactly, the existence of purgatory
became official Church doctrine, what we do know, however, is that by the
Fourth Lateran Council in 1215, the sale of ‘indulgencies’, reducing the amount
time people had to spend in purgatory, had become what was probably the biggest
extortion racket in history. In fact, so big had it become that, by then, the
Church had already accepted the need to sub-contract the entire business out to
professional agents called quaestores
– better known as
‘pardoners’ – who went from
diocese to diocese, parish to parish, terrorising people into parting with
their money by describing the agonies they would suffer in purgatory if they
did not pay up. The problem was that, by 1215, the Church had become so
dependent on this source of income that all the Lateran Council could really do
was regulate how the business operated, curbing some of the pardoners’ worst
excesses by limiting how much they could charge for each category of sin and
specifying what percentage of the proceeds should go to the local diocese and
how much should be sent back to Rome.
The result was that, by the early 16th century,
the Roman Catholic Church had not only become the wealthiest organisation in
the world but, in some places, it was also the most detested. For the lavish
lifestyles and conspicuous consumption of the Prince-Bishops of the Holy Roman
Empire in particular were inevitably paid for by those who could least afford
it, engendering a level of outrage which eventually drove one man, Martin
Luther, to send a copy of his ‘Ninety-five Theses’ to Albrecht von Brandenburg,
the Archbishop of Mainz, who had recently appointed the infamous pardoner, Johann
Tetzel, to sell
indulgencies on behalf of his diocese, both in order to raise the money the
diocese needed to pay its required contribution to the rebuilding of St.
Peter's Basilica in Rome and to pay off the Archbishop’s own debts, to which
the Pope had actually agreed.
Apart from the shamelessness demonstrated by this blatant act
of corruption, what Luther really objected to, however, was what he believed to
be the church’s implicit downplaying of faith. For by selling forgiveness,
which Luther believed it was for God alone to grant, and making it dependent on
acts of penance and donations to the Church, he believed that the Church was
undermining the simple act of surrender –
of putting oneself entirely in God’s hands – which, for Luther, was at the very heart of Christian
faith. What he advocated, instead, was a much simpler, more personal form of
Christianity, in which the individual’s relationship to God was not dependent
upon the intermediation of the Church. And it was to this end that he therefore
set about producing the first ever German translation of the bible, which was
published in September 1522 and which, far more than his Ninety-Five Theses, is
what really made him anathema to the Church. For it was precisely through its
intermediation in the relationship between God and man, of course, that the
Church gained its power and wealth.
Luther’s real crime, therefore, was not in questioning the Church’s
authority, as is sometimes said, but in questioning its necessity: by telling
people that they didn’t need it, that they could read the bible for themselves
and make up their own minds as to its correct interpretation. And it was this
that truly frightened, not just the Church, but everyone in positions of
authority they wanted to keep. Indeed,
its why the religious wars of the 17th century, most notably the
Thirty Years War, from 1618 to 1648, and the English Civil War, from 1642 to
1651, were as much about politics as they were about religion. For they were
about the sovereign rights and freedoms of the individual in the face of an
authoritarian Church and State.
What Martin Luther really set in motion, therefore, was not
a reformation but a revolution: one which had two main strands, the political
and the intellectual, both of which stemmed from the act of reading the bible
in one’s own language, which was both a political assertion of one’s right to form
one’s own opinions –
and not be told what to believe –
and an intellectual commitment to thinking for oneself. More than that, it also
sparked a broader cultural revolution. For as printed translations of the bible
proliferated throughout Europe, it caused a dramatic increase in literacy, a
skill which, once acquired, is not confined to the reading of just one book.
Other ancient texts, from Aristotle to Euclid, were also translated into
Europe’s modern languages, to be joined by the output of contemporary writers,
from courtly poets and political pamphleteers to the pioneers of the emerging new
sciences. This in turn prompted the most rapid period of scientific development
in history, culminating in the foundation of the Royal Society in London in
1660, the moto of which, as I have mentioned before, is ‘Nullius in Verba’ or
‘by nobody else’s word’, which declared to the world that the work and findings
of its members would be based solely on evidence and reason, not on
‘authority’.
This anti-authoritarian stance was then further reinforced
by the development of a new political philosophy which rejected the old world
order in which everyone had a preordained station in life above which one could
not rise. Instead, philosophers like John Locke asserted the existence of a
natural right or freedom to make of one’s life what one would. Importantly, this
did not mean that one could do anything one liked, as is sometimes suggested.
For in a civilized society, Locke argued, one’s own personal liberty had to be
bound by a mutual respect for the rights and liberties of others. It also meant
that one had to take responsibility for oneself economically. For if one is economically
dependent on another, that other may reasonably feel entitled to exert some
control over how one lives one’s life, especially with respect to the level of
expenses one incurs. All of this, however – both the natural rights Locke championed and the responsibilities
they entailed –
appealed enormously to the growing middle class, which this new political
philosophy had itself brought about and which was the driving force behind the
many new manufacturing industries which emerged during the 18th and
19th centuries as a result of both the technological developments to
which the new sciences had given rise and the hard work and entrepreneurial
spirit of the new middle class itself.
These new manufacturing industries then gave a further boost
to foreign trade, as merchants from industrialised Europe were able to sell
advanced manufactured goods to less technologically advanced countries in
exchange for the commodities and raw materials which were used in Europe’s
factories to produce even more advanced manufactured goods. It also led to the
expansion of competing trading empires which eventually found their way into
almost every corner of the world, with the result that, by the middle of the 19th
century, European civilization or what, with the addition of the United States,
we now call Western Civilization more or less dominated the entire planet and
could justifiably claim to be the greatest civilization in history.
2.
The Breaking of the West (Part 1): Economics
After attaining such a level of dominance, the question this
raises, of course, is ‘What went wrong?’ For while this may not be obvious to the
politicians and bureaucrats in London, Brussels and Washington, who still cling
to the increasingly outdated belief that their liberal world order still runs
the planet, to most people in our increasingly multipolar world, it is fairly
clear that ‘The West’ is in decline and is so largely because we have abandoned
the very values that made us so successful. Not only have we mostly given up on
self-reliance as the price that must be paid for independence but in much of the
West we have actually embraced a culture of dependency. Even more baffling is
the fact that we have not only stopped thinking for ourselves, believing almost
anything those in positions of authority tell us, but have accepted a level of
authoritarianism which, in many countries, including the UK, has more or less
criminalised free speech and the airing of alternative views.
That we have a problem, not just in understanding this strange
regression, but in even recognising it, however, it is not only due to the fact
that we are still living through it and cannot therefore see it as clearly as
our historical past, but because, unlike the logical progression that took us
from Martin Luther’s rejection of Roman Catholic authoritarianism to the
scientific discoveries of the 17th century, our regression has had
two distinct phases with completely different causal origins.
What makes this even more confusing is the fact that our current
rejection of self-reliance and independence actually has its roots in exactly
the same melting pot of ideas as John Locke’s classical liberalism. For at
almost the same time that Locke was arguing that, if one wanted to exercise
personal freedom, one had to take responsibility for oneself economically,
there were others who regarded such aspirations as no better than the avarice
and greed of the ruling class that had previously oppressed them. In Germany,
for instance, the Anabaptists believed that owning property was actually the
source of almost every recognised sin, especially greed and envy, and so held all
property in common, including, in some cases, women! During the English Civil
War, the Diggers held much the same view, especially with respect to land,
which they frequently seized from the rightful owners and farmed communally.
Of course, none of these cults or political movements lasted
very long. Once the religious wars of the 17th century were over and
order had been restored, property rights were once again enforced. After all,
Oliver Cromwell, Lord Protector of the short-lived English Commonwealth, was
himself a moderately wealthy land owner and had no interest in sharing his
property with anyone. More to the point, it was successful middle class businessmen,
who, unlike the old aristocracy, had worked hard to amass their wealth, who now
dominated much of civic life, thereby creating a new class division between the
working and middle classes in which the political philosophy of people like the
Levellers became embedded within the working class identity. This then hardened
over time such that, by the beginning of the 19th century, the
glaring inequalities between the workers who produced the wealth and the
business men who owned it had brought about a state of such moral outrage and
enmity within the working class that it was only a matter of time before some
national calamity, such as the losing of a world war, would trigger another
revolution: not this time one that would set people free by teaching them to
read and think for themselves but one that would trap them in a prison of
tyrannical dependency of precisely the kind that John Locke described.
Nor is it hard to see why this should be so. For as the
Anabaptists and Diggers clearly understood, the most obvious solution to the
problem of inequality is to bring all property into public ownership. By
holding property in common, however, it is the collective rather than the
individual that decides where resources are to be allocated: a decision to
which the individual is simply obliged to submit. The problem, however, is that
the power of a collective, whether it be an Anabaptist commune in 17th
century Germany or a collective farm in 20th century Russia, is
inevitably vested in actual people.
In the case of an Anabaptist commune, for instance, power
almost always lay in the hands of the commune’s spiritual leader, a man whose stern
judgment and implacable will very often made him something of a cult figure,
whose followers obeyed him both out of fear of eternal damnation and in order
to eat. Indeed, it was the cult-like nature of many Anabaptist sects which, in
addition to their unorthodox views on property, caused them to be so persecuted
throughout the 16th and 17th centuries, both by Roman Catholics
and by other Protestants, particularly Lutherans. For, as in the case of cults
today, people were frightened that their children would be drawn into them and
thus lost to their families. And it was this that ultimately drove the
Anabaptists out of most of Germany. For in order to escape both the ostracism
and persecution their beliefs brought down upon them, they were more or less
forced to emigrate, most of them going to America, where Anabaptist sects such
as the Amish still survive today.
Not, of course, that the cult-like status of its leaders was
a problem for the Soviet Union, not least because very few of the local party
functionaries who came in contact with the general public had the kind of
charisma that gives rise to this rather unusual effect. Indeed, it was precisely
this that was the real source of the Soviet Union’s most serious problem. For in
an economy in which all property was held in common, it raised the question as
to how local managers were to get higher productivity out of workers who could
neither be incentivised by the promise of greater personal gain nor inspired to
make greater sacrifices by the power of their local manager’s personality. Those
in charge could always threaten them, of course, and even have them sent to a
Gulag – the secular
equivalent of eternal damnation –
but all this usually did was teach people to keep their heads down and avoid
being noticed. Indeed, it actually deterred people from taking responsibility. For
who would want to be a factory manager in a system in which the manager had
responsibility for achieving a set quota but none of the commercial leverage
required to see that components of sufficient quality actually reached his factory
in time to meet that quota.
The result was that, throughout much of the history of the
Soviet Union, productivity actually fell, leading to shortages of just about
everything. Indeed, I have actually seen this first hand. For while working in
Finland during the 1970s, my girlfriend and I made frequent visits to St.
Petersburg, where we were constantly struck by the sight of people queuing outside
shops, making us wonder what exactly they were queuing for. One day my
girlfriend, who spoke a little Russian, consequently decided to go up to
someone in the queue and asked them, and was told that they were queuing for oranges,
a delivery of which had recently arrived in St. Petersburg for the first time
in six months. On another occasion we actually discovered that most of the people
in the queue didn’t even know what they were queuing for; they just saw a queue
and joined it on the off chance that they might be able to buy some of whatever
was on sale before it was all sold out.
Another oddity I remember from our first trip to St. Petersburg
is the fact that none of the taxis had proper windscreen wiper blades, which,
given the fact that it was snowing most of the time, was more than a little disconcerting.
For most of the drivers had been forced to improvise windscreen wiper blades out
of bits of cardboard, which didn’t work very well to say the least.
The point, however, is that this is the kind of Alice-in-wonderland
world one creates if, instead of allowing thousands of independent businesses to
compete for customers by striving to be the best at meeting those customers’ needs,
one attempts to implement a centrally planned economy in which no one has a personal
stake. For not only is an entire economy just too complicated to be controlled
by a group of central planners, but its operation needs the constant monitoring
and adjustment of people who have a vested interest in it and therefore care
about making it work. Without this kind of attention, what one gets is the kind
of chaos in which there are occasional gluts of goods that no one wants but chronic
shortages of everything else: a state of affairs which makes the development of
a black market – one
from which its operators stand to make a gain and which therefore functions
properly – more or
less inevitable.
In fact, like many tourists visiting the Soviet Union during
the 1970s, my girlfriend and I were among the many beneficiaries of this
illegal trade, visiting St. Petersburg not only to take in the sights of one of
the most beautiful cities in the world, but to enjoy long weekends consuming
large amounts of vodka, caviar and excellent Georgian champagne, all paid for
by selling stuff on the black market.
This also brought with it a certain frisson of fear and
excitement. The first time we participated in this great Finnish tradition, in
fact – now sadly
defunct – I had
visions of us being arrested by the KGB and thrown into some dark, damp cellar,
where we would be forced to listen to the tortured screams of our fellow
inmates. By our second trip, however, I started to suspect that, although the
Soviet authorities put on a great show of cracking down on the black market,
searching our luggage at the border and sternly impressing on my girlfriend the
fact that, while in the Soviet Union, it was illegal for her to sell any of the
dozen or so pairs of brand new lacy knickers she had brought with her, in
reality they more or less turned a blind eye to the whole business.
Nor was this simply because so many people were in on it. Indeed,
they had to be for it to be so well organised. Within minutes of checking into our
hotel, for instance, a chamber maid would knock on our door to ask us what we
had to sell. As soon as we took a seat in the hotel’s bar, a waiter would come
up to us, not just to take our drinks order, but to tell us the black market
exchange rate for whatever hard currency we had, which was always substantially
higher than the official exchange rate. The operation was so slick, in fact,
that it was fairly obvious that the young men and women who worked the hotels
were not working alone. They were buying so much merchandise and currency that
they had to be part of a larger organisation, the principal activity of which,
of course, was selling all this stuff to wealthy Russians who could afford to
buy it at what one imagines was a fairly healthy profit. This therefore
suggested that the whole operation was almost certainly run by an organised
criminal gang, which meant that the police and other Soviet officials also had
to be getting their cut.
The more I thought about it, however, the more I began to suspect
that a few criminal gangs and one or two corrupt local officials weren’t the
only ones benefitting from this trade and that the state, itself, was also,
very probably, a knowing beneficiary. For what the Soviet Union was effectively
doing was importing western goods of a type or quality which it did not
manufacture itself, and paying for them, not in western currencies, but in
rubles, which the recipients then spent on vodka, caviar and Georgian champagne,
thereby boosting the economy in three ways. Firstly, it increased the supply of
manufactured goods which Soviet consumers could buy without shipping money abroad.
In fact, far from expending hard currency on these goods, the black market trade
in hard currencies actually increased their availability to the Soviet Union
itself. For while theses hard currencies initially went to the criminal gangs, they
then had to be laundered in some way, which meant that, one way or another, they
entered the Soviet financial system where they boosted the Soviet Union’s
foreign reserves.
Even more importantly, however, the fact that Finnish
tourists were getting long weekend holidays for little more than the coach fare
meant that, every Friday afternoon, dozens of Finnish coaches disembarked their
passengers onto the forecourts of St. Petersburg’s bustling hotels, greatly
boosting the city’s tourist, catering and hospitality industries, from which hundreds,
if not thousands of people benefitted. What’s more, it was fairly obvious that the
Soviet Union also gained politically from this. For by giving Soviet consumers
access to goods they would have otherwise been denied, it was effectively using
the black market to make up for the deficiencies in its own centrally planned
economy. In fact, without the black market filling people’s pockets and
supplying them with luxury goods they couldn’t buy in their own shops, it is highly
likely that there would have been a lot more political disaffection than was actually
the case and that a combination of shortages and political dissent might even
have brought the system down, as, of course, it eventually did.
The problem we had in the West, however, is that we didn’t
understand any of this. We thought that the Soviet Union collapsed because of
its tyrannical government, endemic corruption and unrestrained organised crime.
We didn’t realise that all three of these problems were merely by-products of a
faulty economic system. When the Soviet economy finally collapsed, therefore, we
didn’t learn anything from it. Even after the Soviet Union broke up, in fact,
there were Labour politicians in Britain who still called for more parts of the
British economy to be taken into public ownership. Worse still, huge swathes of
the population actually agreed with them, partly because many people still harboured
some vestige of the Puritan belief that private wealth is immoral, but also,
one suspects, for fear of the alternative. For taking responsibility for
oneself and standing on one’s own two feet can be scary. Starting one’s own
business, for instance, knowing that there will be no one there to catch one if
it all goes wrong, requires a great deal of courage. It is only human,
therefore, to want there to be someone who will ultimately look out for us. Beneath
this perfectly human desire, however, there is a hidden snare. For in an age in
which few of us now believe in God and in which families have become far more
fragmented, the only institution left to catch us when we fall is, of course,
the state.
In the aftermath of the second world war, when people
throughout Europe were thinking about what kind of world they wanted to return
to, most countries therefore opted for what was effectively a compromise
between classical liberalism and socialism which we labelled the ‘mixed economy’,
in which most businesses, especially small businesses, remained in private
ownership, while most essential services, including health and education, along
with certain strategic industries, such as electricity generation and the
railways, were nationalised. The problem with this, however, was not just that
these state run services and industries eventually became as inefficient,
wasteful and dysfunctional as their Soviet counterparts but that, because public
services were free at the point of use, people were more than happy to avail
themselves of them, with the result that the expansion and improvement of these
services was the most common and popular electoral promise made by politicians
of nearly every political affiliation.
The problem, of course, is that these services are not
actually free; they are paid for out of taxation, which, whether the taxes are levied
on income or expenditure, takes money out of people’s pockets, leaving them
with less to spend elsewhere. This then has two main effects. The first and
most obvious is that workers demand higher wages at a time when increased taxation
is already reducing demand. Without being able to increase sales, this means that,
in order to pay these high wages, employers have to increase their prices, thereby
increasing inflation.
Of course, it will be argued that, if taxation is used to
pay public sector workers, then it doesn’t actually take money out of the
economy and should not therefore reduce overall demand. Not only does it most definitely
reduce the demand generated by those being taxed, however – who have to be in the
majority in order to make the public sector supportable – but most public sector workers do not produce anything
which anyone actually buys. That is to say that, by governments redirecting
resources away from commercial production and towards publicly funded services,
their economies not only produce more of these services than would be in demand
if they were not free at the point of use, but, without a compensatory increases
in productivity, it reduces the supply of purchasable goods, thereby increasing
their cost and hence reducing demand.
This then leads to the second negative effect of raising
taxes to pay for public services. For by increasing the cost of producing goods
and services in other parts of the economy, domestic industries find it
increasingly difficult to compete with foreign imports from countries which
spend less on public services. This then leads to industrial decline, making it
no accident, for instance, that the West has lost most of its manufacturing industry
to China and other countries in the East.
Western governments, of course, have tried to cover up this
industrial decline by pointing to the creation of new jobs in the service
sector. Not only are many of these new service jobs actually in the public
sector, however, but many that are not are in some way dependent on government.
Take, for instance, the huge number of management consultants the government
constantly employs to improve the performance of the NHS. These may work for
private firms but the taxpayer still pays for them.
This, however, has another unfortunate knock-on effect. For
while industrial and economic decline in most western countries has effectively
reduced the tax base, the increase in public services jobs and jobs dependent
on government has further increased public expenditure. In 2023-24, for
instance, the UK government actually accounted for 44.7% of all expenditure in
Britain. In France, this year, the figure is expected to rise to 57%, the
highest in the world. The real problem, however, is that there is an upper
limit to the amount any government can tax an economy before raising taxation
rates ceases to increase tax revenues. This is because raising taxation rates,
whether it be on income or expenditure, changes people’s behaviour. If one
raises income tax above a certain level, for instance, people do less overtime,
judging that the financial rewards of doing extra work are not commensurate
with the loss of free time. If, alternatively, the government increases sales
tax, then people either buy things on credit and get into debt, which causes
them to reduce expenditure even more sharply later on, or they adjust their
expenditure to what they can afford, either by doing without certain items
altogether or by finding cheaper alternatives.
No matter how governments try to increase revenues by
raising taxes, in fact, eventually they hit a ceiling, which, in most countries
is around 38% of GDP. If the governments of those countries are spending
anywhere between 44.7% and 57% of GDP, therefore, they can only do so by
borrowing the difference, which most western countries have been doing for the
last twenty years or so, with the result that the British government’s debt currently
stands at around £3 trillion or 97% of
GDP, while the US federal government’s debt stands at a staggering $38
trillion or 120% of GDP. Worse still, the GDP figures of most countries are,
themselves, greatly inflated by the fact that they actually include government
expenditure. If one measured GDP purely in terms of the income generated by
productive industries, government debt to GDP ratios would be much higher.
Needless to say this is unsustainable. At present, however, there
is very little sign that any government in the West is seriously trying to cut
expenditure, the one part of the fiscal equation over which they have any real
control. As increasing tax rates has already become counterproductive in most western
countries, this means that they are simply forced to go on borrowing. By some
estimates, for instance, British government debt is increasing by around £5,000
per second, while annual interest on the accumulated debt is now over £100
billion. What’s more, bond markets throughout the West are well aware of the dangers
inherent in this continued trend, leading to bond prices falling almost everywhere,
causing yields to rise and forcing governments to issue new bonds with even
higher yields in order to sell them. It is only a matter of time, therefore,
before falling demand for government bonds reaches a point at which at least
one western government will find itself unable to sell enough new bonds to
cover the cost of redeeming those falling due and will therefore be forced to
default, unleashing a wave of panic across bond markets which will cause other
western governments to fall like dominoes.
Of course, it may be thought that this won’t happen because
the IMF will step in to bail out any government on the brink of default. The
problem with this argument, however, is that the IMF is largely funded by those
very same western governments which are themselves close to bankruptcy. More to
the point, the scale of the debt in many cases is well beyond that which can
ever be repaid, reducing the efficacy of any bail out to that of sticking
plaster on a wound that is simply too large to heal, which rather raises the
question as to how we didn’t see this coming. After all, there is nothing in the
above explanation as to how we got here that is particularly difficult to
understand and wasn’t entirely predictable. So why didn’t we do anything about
it while there was still time? How could we have been so stupid as to just let
it happen? For mass stupidity, I think, is the only possible explanation.
3.
The Breaking of the West (Part 2): Stupidity
As I have explained elsewhere, there are, in fact, many
different types of stupidity, probably the most common of which results from
the fact that, for much of the time, we just don’t think. Based on some common
misconception or false assumption, which, if we thought about it for even a
moment, we would quite clearly see was false, we just blunder ahead and are
then surprised when the outcome is not quite what we intended.
Another fairly common form of stupidity is based on wishful
thinking, which is very often combined with self-deception. We want so
desperately for something to be the case that, even though it may be intrinsically
unlikely, we place all our hopes in it and are often quite distraught when the
hoped for outcome does not materialise, not least because we realise how stupid
we were to bank so much on something that was so extremely improbable.
Both of these examples of stupidity, however, are largely characteristic
of individuals rather than groups. It may, of course, be argued that groups can
also suffer from wishful thinking. After all, governments throughout the West
have spent the last twenty-odd years telling themselves that they can go on
indefinitely spending money they don’t have without it leading to financial
collapse. Governments, however, including both politicians and bureaucrats,
tend to be closed groups which defend themselves by preventing group members
from asking awkward questions. As such, the members submit to a group think which they deceive
themselves into believing is both rational and sound. If a group is large and
open enough, however, it is far more difficult to completely suppress critical
thinking and therefore prevent the members from realising that they are actually
fooling themselves.
There is, however, one form of stupidity which, even though
it is most commonly induced by an individual or group of individuals, is
essentially collective, being the stupidity of the herd. Typically, it will
start when a population is repeatedly told something that is not true by those they
not only regard as being in authority but do not regard as having any malign
intent towards them. This then leads most open-minded people to at least entertain
the possibility that what they are being told might be true, with the result
that, if it is repeated often enough, they eventually come to believe it. Once this
happens, moreover, it then spreads like a contagion. For we falsely believe
that, if everybody else believes something, then it must be true. This then
leads us to believe it and so spread the contagion further.
A good example of this is the mediaeval belief in purgatory.
Sometime during the 10th century, those in positions of authority in
the Lateran Palace decided to adopt Augustine’s terrifying vision as official
Church doctrine and did whatever was necessary to disseminate and enforce a
belief in purgatory’s existence. Once the population had attained the required
threshold of belief, however, the Church didn’t have to do any more to convince
people that purgatory was real because everyone now believed it because everyone
else did.
Of course, you may say that this kind of herd-like behaviour
no longer applies to us. But human nature hasn’t changed over the last thousand
years; we are just as gullible today as we were then. A good example is our
collective belief that human beings are causing the earth to warm by burning
fossil fuels which releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. ‘Ah’, you say,
‘but that is true!’ The only reason you believe it to be true, however, is
because everybody else does. What’s more, I know with absolute certainty that
this is the only reason you believe it. Because I also know that you have no
independent evidence to support this belief. And how do I know this? Because no
such evidence exists.
Yes, carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas which absorbs
infrared radiation emitted by the sun-warmed surface of the earth, thereby
warming the atmosphere. But it is a very minor greenhouse gas, accounting for
only a very small percentage of atmospheric warming due to greenhouse gases in
total. More than 90% of that warming, in fact, is caused by water vapour, which
is thirty times more abundant in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide and
contributes more than thirty times more warming to the overall warming effect.
What’s more, most of the wavelengths of infrared radiation absorbed by carbon
dioxide – between
2.7 and 4.3 microns –
are also absorbed by water vapour. In fact, all the infrared radiation emitted
by the earth’s surface at these wavelengths is already absorbed by a
combination of water vapour and carbon dioxide, which clearly means that, at
these wavelengths, adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere cannot lead to
the absorption of any more radiation.
The only wavelength at which carbon dioxide uniquely absorbs
infrared radiation, in fact, is 15 microns. This, however, is a very long
wavelength, which means that the objects which emit it are not actually very
warm. In fact, they wouldn’t show up on most night vision goggles. For in order
for an object to emit infrared radiation at 15 microns it has to be -70°C.
Admittedly, molecules of nitrogen and oxygen at this
temperature are to be found in the upper atmosphere. But there are two reasons
why this should not worry us. The first is that carbon dioxide is 50% heavier
than air and is therefore concentrated closer to the ground, its concentration decreasing
by ten parts per million for every thousand metre increase in altitude. This
means that the only carbon dioxide to be found above 40,000 metres is that
which is produced there by cosmic radiation striking the nuclei of nitrogen
atoms, knocking out single protons and turning what were nitrogen atoms into
carbon atoms, which then bond with oxygen atoms to form carbon dioxide. More to
the point, the amount of energy stored in objects at -70°C is so small that it could not appreciably warm the
earth’s atmosphere no matter how much more carbon dioxide was added to the
atmosphere to absorb it.
Not, of course, that most people are aware of any of this.
All they know is what the ‘experts’ tell them: that human emissions of carbon
dioxide cause global warming. Not really knowing anything about climate science
themselves, moreover, they have no basis upon which to suspect that these experts
might be lying to them. After all, why would they?
The answer to this question, however, is exactly the same as
the answer to the question as to why the mediaeval Church told people that
there was this place called purgatory in which they would have to spend years,
decades or possibly even centuries in a constant state of torment unless they
handed over substantial quantities of their hard earned cash. The only
difference between this mediaeval extortion racket and today’s climate change
scam is that, during the 1980s, the institution which most desperately needed a
new source of income was NASA, which, after the termination of the Apollo
programme and the disastrous failure of the space shuttle, needed to repurpose
itself in order to secure its continued funding. After more than a decade in
the wilderness, it finally did this in 1989, when James Hansen, Director of
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, convinced Congress that, unless its
continued giving NASA billions of dollars each year to monitor the situation, by
the end of century much of America’s Atlantic coastline, including Washington
DC, would be under water due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW).
The real question we need to ask, therefore, is not why
climate scientists in the 1980s should have lied to us about the dangers of
global warming – I
think that is fairly obvious –
but why, if there is as little foundation to the climate scare as I contend
there is, other scientists should have so meekly gone along with it? What
happened to ‘Nullius in Verba’? For when it comes to fields of science not
their own, it would appear that most scientists today do just accept the word
of those they regard as experts in those other fields.
One of the main reasons for this, of course, is thatscience
has changed considerably over the last 365 years, not least in the way it has become
ever more specialised. When the Royal Society was founded in 1660, most
scientists, in fact, were generalists, studying whatever piqued their curiosity
in a way that would be more or less impossible in a modern university or
research institute. Robert Hook’s initial interest in optics, for instance, enabled
him to develop a microscope, which he then used to discover and subsequently study
microscopic lifeforms, effectively creating the field of science we now call
microbiology. Not only did his lack of any disciplinary straitjacket thus greatly
accelerate the growth of science in the 17th century but it also
meant that most Royal Society members, like Robert Hook, felt themselves both
able and obliged to critically address the work of other scientists, whatever
their field of study, something which most scientists today would find it very
difficult to do.
This is because specialisation also causes fragmentation,
with each specialism developing its own concepts and terminology in a way that
can make it more or less impenetrable to scientists in other fields. How many microbiologists
today, for instance, would even be able to read a paper on laser optics, let
alone offer their views on it? Not only does this lead to a situation in which
most scientists today do not even try to communicate their work to scientists
in other fields, however, but it also leads to the creation of closed worlds in
which those who feel they have proprietary rights over a particular discipline
use their established positions within it to influence both funding bodies and
publishers to see off interlopers who might take their science in a different
direction.
Indeed, this is very similar to the closed groups comprising
most governments which I described earlier, where membership depends on
submission to a group think which effectively prevents the members from questioning
the group’s principal beliefs. The main difference is that, in most fields of
science, the only negative consequence of this is that it tends to make the
field moribund, in that no new ideas are permitted. Because most scientific
research is publicly funded, however,
particularly in Britain, some fields of science have a political dimension and
an influence outside of themselves, which, if they have become closed, can
effectively mean that the outside world becomes closed as well.
Again, climate science provides the perfect example of this,
not least because, for some reason, the idea that human beings might constitute
a significant threat to the planet resonates very strongly with the general
public, chiming closely with the widespread belief that we are a major source
of pollution from which the earth consequently needs to be saved. As a result,
governments did not need a lot of convincing before they started funding
research into climate change on a major scale, which not only increased the
number of scientists with a vested interest in ensuring that the climate change
bandwagon continued, but made it more or less impossible for any scientist who
questioned the AGW theory to obtain any form of government funding.
Some organisations such as the BBC even banned ‘climate
change deniers’ from appearing on their programs, which meant that audiences only
ever heard one side of the debate, thus further reinforcing most people’s
belief that the threat from climate change was both real and serious. The
strongest boost to this belief, however, came when governments started adopting
‘Net Zero’ policies. For the mere fact that they were prepared go to so much
trouble and expense to replace perfectly functional coal-fired power stations
with intrinsically unreliable wind and solar farms clearly implied that the
governments in question thought such steps were necessary. After all, governments
would have been insane to give up low cost fossil fuels in favour of highly
subsidised renewables if the scientific basis of the AGW theory had not been
incontestable. What most people failed to realise, however, is that government
ministers not only have no more knowledge of climate science than we do,
relying on scientific advisers who are paid to tell them exactly what they want
to hear, but that, just like the rest of us, their main reason for believing in
climate change is that everyone else does.
What we have created, in fact, is a classic vicious circle
in which reciprocal feedback loops constantly reinforce each other. This
pattern of reciprocal reinforcement, however, is not just to be found in such
classic example as the mediaeval belief in purgatory or our modern belief in
climate change, but in almost every instance in which erroneous beliefs and their
herd-like adoption infect entire populations. Most significantly, it is to be
found in the mass stupidity which has destroyed the West’s economy.
The first loop in this particular vicious circle starts, of
course, with the natural human desire to access essential public services, free
at the point of use, whenever we need them and to be provided with an adequate
welfare safety net should we run into difficulties. The problem is that, while
voters consistently say that this is what they want, they don’t like paying the
taxes required to support such a system. This therefore places governments in
something of a dilemma. For the optimum solution, of course, would be to try to
find a balance between these two requirements by providing the best possible
public services one can afford while keeping taxes as low as possible. The
trouble with this kind of compromise, however, is that it usually pleases no
one. Prioritising their desire for re-election above all other considerations,
therefore, governments throughout the West have increasingly resorted to hiring
obliging economic advisors to show them how to effectively square the circle of
improving and expanding public services without raising taxes.
This, of course, is impossible: one simply cannot have high
quality public servicers, free at the point of use, without raising sufficient
taxes to pay for them. Given that there is a limit to how high one can raise
taxes before it becomes counterproductive, this also means, therefore, that
there is a limit to how much one can expand and improve public services. No
paid economic advisor is ever going to tell their finance minister this,
however, for the simple reason that, if they did, they wouldn’t remain a paid economic
advisor for very long. So, instead, they advise their ministers to instruct the
governors of their only nominally independent central banks to lower interest
rates in order to making borrowing cheaper for both the government and
consumers, the rationale behind this being that this will stimulate the
economy, which, in itself, has two effects. The first is that it increases GDP,
which means that increased government borrowing will not result in an increased
debt to GDP ratio. The second is that a higher GDP not only results in higher
tax revenues without the government having to raise taxation rates, but allows
both governments and consumers to then pay off their debts out of the increased
wealth created.
The only problem with this is that, like the AGW theory,
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), as it is called, is just nonsense, only gaining
what little credibility it has by drawing a false analogy between government borrowing
and businesses borrowing, where businesses borrow money to invest in new plant
and equipment in order to increase productive capacity and hence revenues, out
of which they will then be able to repay their loans. Neither governments nor
consumers, however, borrow money to invest in productive capacity from which
future revenues flow; they both largely borrow money for current consumption.
Yes, there is a resultant increase in GDP. But most of this will be accounted
for by increased public expenditure and retail sales. What’s more, most western
countries are currently running a trade deficit, especially in manufactured
goods, which means that most of the increased amount money spent on retail goods
is spent on imports and ends up going abroad rather than to local businesses.
Indeed, apart from increasing government and consumer debt, all MMT does is
increase the balance of payments deficit while papering over the cracks in a
systemically faulty economy.
So why have so many western governments gone down this path?
The answer, however, is simple. For most government ministers don’t know any
more about economics than they know about climate science; they simply accepts
what their expert advisors tell them, especially when their expert advisors
tell them what they want to hear, which, of course, they always do.
The more important question, therefore, is why we go along with it. The answer to this
question, however, is also very simple. For we no longer understand economics the
way we did when people learned about economics, not from economics textbooks,
but from hard earned experience, which taught us that we can’t spend what we
don’t have and that getting into debt only makes the situation worse. The problem
was that we thought we could put an end to this fear-laden economic reality by putting
ourselves in the hands of those who told us they had a magical solution to the
problem, but whom we now discover are just self-serving charlatans who have no
idea what they are doing and, like mediaeval pardoners, don’t actually give a
damn about us.